Shadow fleet raises concerns… parallel trade threatens energy security and global economy, ‘UK report’
Yemen
Yamanat
The “ghost fleet” is no longer simply a network of ships circumventing laws to transport sanctioned oil, but has morphed into a parallel system that is reshaping global shipping and energy equations. This is according to a new report published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, warning that weak international control over ship registration has allowed the development of activities that threaten both maritime security and the global economy.
Fertile ground for the ghost fleet
According to the report, the ease with which ships obtain the flags of different countries without oversight, the lack of transparency regarding true ownership and the lack of oversight have created a fertile environment for a vast network of tankers to flourish. These vessels, around 700 of which have been sanctioned over the past year, are mainly used to transport Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil outside official channels.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), although empowered to establish binding rules, does not have enforcement powers. This allows “flag states” to turn a blind eye to their obligations, which has created, according to the report, a “parallel shipping ecosystem” that rewards fraud and undermines compliance.
New compression tool
To deal with this phenomenon, the report recommends entrusting the surveillance file to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), responsible for combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism. This body has more effective tools, such as “mutual evaluation”, which puts direct pressure on governments and affects their reputation and financial rating. Including the “ghost fleet” in the group’s scope of work means empowering countries that allow vessel registration through lenient procedures or through private companies acting as registration agents.
Post-Ukraine
Experts agree that the exacerbation of the phenomenon of the ghost fleet after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine is no longer only a question of economic sanctions, but is also linked to financing programs for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. This makes the use of FATF mechanisms more realistic and appropriate in light of escalating geopolitical tensions.
A double economic impact
The presence of the ghost fleet affects not only maritime traffic, but also global energy markets. The entry of large quantities of Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil into the markets through unofficial channels creates parallel prices on the black and gray markets. Result: a difficulty in measuring the size of the real oil supply, which confuses OPEC+ policies and confuses calculations of the balance between supply and demand.
In contrast, regulated shipping companies incur higher costs, due to unfair competition from carriers who avoid taxes and insurance. This distortion puts particular pressure on companies operating on strategic routes such as the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.
Security, environmental and financial risks
Large insurance companies, for their part, view the ghost fleet as a direct threat. Ships that hide their identities and conduct suspicious oil transfers are more vulnerable to accidents, environmental leaks and legal disputes. This is why insurance companies have increased their premiums on ships transiting areas where clandestine activity is suspected, indirectly increasing the costs of legitimate shipping.
Additionally, financial revenues from this trade often pass through complex money laundering networks, raising concerns among regulators and international banks. In the long term, experts warn that this could undermine investor confidence in the transparency of energy markets and increase risk premiums on investments linked to oil and shipping.
system
The phenomenon of the “ghost fleet” is no longer a temporary fault in the maritime system, but rather an integrated system paralleling official maritime transport and reshaping the energy balance and global trade. Combating this phenomenon requires tools that go beyond the powers of the International Maritime Organization, to stricter frameworks such as the Financial Action Task Force, which can impose tangible pressure on lax countries. In the meantime, the ghost fleet will remain a major factor in disrupting energy markets and increasing geopolitical and economic risks.
Rebellion against unipolarity
The truth is that this fleet would not have been possible because of Western efforts, led by the United States of America, to dominate the international economy. The unjust economic sanctions that it imposes from time to time on countries that oppose its policies have contributed to the expansion of the shadow fleet, as a preventive measure to deal with unjust sanctions. In reality, the Shadow Fleet is a rebellion against the unipolar international system and good news as the world is moving towards a more pluralistic world and an economy that is not subject to the hegemony of a single international party.
Yemen